Answer:
Sadly, the chances of making partner these days at a large firm are slim - even in a booming economy. There are many factors that come into play as to whether someone is promoted to partner, including likeability of candidate, potential of candidate to bring in business, political savvy of candidate, candidate's practice area, hours candidate billed over the last 3+ years, and the economics of candidate's firm. In the case of a large firm's branch or satellite office, you also need to consider the office's overall reputation within the firm. It is important to consider whether the partners in your office have the ''pull'' to help advance your career. If the firm has routinely promoted associates in your office to partner and this happens to be an ''off'' year due to the economy, then my best recommendation would be to stay put but explore other opportunities as a precaution.
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If the Los Angeles office has not been self-sufficient and has relied on other offices for work for over two years, it would be wise to explore other options very seriously. As you get more senior, it is going to become more and more difficult to move to another firm without having an existing book of business. Now is the time to look into other opportunities. 2010 is already showing signs of being a stronger market for laterals.
You can expect a firm of ANY size to take at least two to three years before they even consider you for partnership (your friend who made partner as a sixth year is more of an exception to the rule). There are NO guarantees. It is possible to be turned down for partnership, but then make partner at a later time. Of course you may be promoted to Of Counsel (if the firm has attorneys with such a title) and then promoted again to partner. At this stage in your career, ANY law firm - no matter what the size - is going to hire you with an eye toward partnership. The hiring process will take much longer than for more junior associates, and you will certainly be asked to provide a conflicts form and possibly a business or marketing plan. A firm is going to ask you questions about your existing experience but also about your relationship with firm clients. Ideally, any firm that hires you will hope you are able to bring in work and certainly will expect you to help generate more work from existing clients.
Many believe it is ''easier'' to make partner at a small or mid-sized firm. This assumption is usually true, but the factors that come into play in making partner at a large firm are the same factors that a small or mid-size firm considers. With more and more large firms focusing on their core or top 10 institutional clients, more and more of the ''middle market'' companies are being referred to the small and mid-size firms. Also, generally these firms have lower billing rates (although not always) making it is easier to bring in new clients who simply can not afford large firm billing rates.
It would behoove you to speak with a seasoned recruiter who would offer you advice for your particular situation. You want to work with someone who is honest and is going to look at the big picture. You need a recruiter who is not motivated by money but rather helping people and doing the right thing. Particularly if you are in good standing at your firm and not necessarily in a rush to leave, you want to work with someone who is going to offer you good advice based on what is best for your career and not the recruiter's need to make a placement or fulfill a job opening. Of course, I would recommend BCG Attorney Search (www.bcgsearch.com) to find such a caliber of a recruiter.
Please see this article to find out if litigation is right for you: Why Most Attorneys Have No Business Being Litigators: Fifteen Reasons Why You Should Not Be a Litigator
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